‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: War on Iran Constricts India's Cooking-Gas Supplies.

The shockwaves of a conflict being fought nearly 3,000km away are now impacting India's homes.

As aerial attacks on Iran impede energy shipments through the vital shipping lane, availability of cooking gas are tightening across India, pushing restaurants to cut menus, reduce operating times and in some cases cease operations entirely.

Social media is filled with video clips showing queues outside fuel suppliers across Indian cities and towns as worries over fuel supplies spread. Commercial LPG users appear the worst hit: the most severe shortage is in food service establishments.

"The situation is dire. Kitchen fuel simply is unavailable," says a official of the an industry group.

Most food outlets run either on industrial fuel canisters or piped gas, and the scarcities are now being experienced across the country. "A lot of restaurants have ceased operations - some in northern India, many in the southern region. People are adopting coal and wood and electronic appliances to keep food preparation going."

Regional Impact

In Mumbai, accounts say up to a significant portion of hotels and restaurants are already operating at reduced capacity as business fuel stocks tighten. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some restaurants say their gas stocks have dwindled with minimal reserves. "Our menu is reduced to coffee and no other dishes - it is nothing less than pathetic. Commerce will take a hit," says a business operator in Bengaluru.

Restaurant owners are seeking alternatives. "Menus are being curtailed, some are cutting lunch service and reducing hours," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are changing as supplies ebb and flow. "Three restaurants in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers observe a increase in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are running out of them.

Authority's View

Yet, the government maintains there is sufficient stock.

India has more than 30 crore household consumers and authorities say supplies are being prioritized to households as tensions from the Middle East conflict impact energy markets.

Roughly six out of ten of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about the vast majority of those shipments pass through the key maritime route, the vital passage now effectively closed by the hostilities.

The relevant department says that it instructed refineries to increase LPG output for household consumption, raising domestic production by about a quarter. Non-domestic supply is being prioritised for essential sectors such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "just and open".

"Some panic booking and accumulation has been sparked by false reports. The regular refill period for domestic LPG remains about two-and-a-half days," says a government spokesperson.

Widening Concern

Now the worry is spreading beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of scooters outside a petrol pump. "The panic is real," the description reads.

According to analysis from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader energy security may be exaggerated.

India imports almost all of its oil. Around a significant portion of its oil purchases - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from Middle Eastern nations.

Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the deficit could be partly offset by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a sector expert.

Based on maritime intelligence and credible market sources, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, reducing India's effective shortfall from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Tens of millions of Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.

Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness

The primary concern is LPG, commentators observe.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through Hormuz.

Refineries can modify output to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only lift domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be moderately reduced through diversification. Refined product supply remains fairly adequate. LPG availability is the key factor to track in the coming weeks."

What may be heightening the concern on the ground is not just limited availability but patchy deliveries - and the usual problem of stockpiling.

An industry representative states opportunistic profiteering.

"Distributors are taking advantage of the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and auctioned off."

For now, India's petroleum stocks may be cushioned by global trade flows. But in restaurants across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next cylinder.