Daily Killings in the nation Fall Thirty-Seven Percent Under the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Government Data

The mean figure of per-day murders each month in the country has fallen by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to fresh official figures. However, public safety analysts have cautioned that murder figures may not signal better countrywide safety.

Notable Drop in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an mean of almost 55 murders a day in November as opposed to nearly 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidential office in the previous September. This information was provided by the chief of the country’s national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on Tuesday.

“The result in murders that have been recorded during these months is extremely significant,” Sheinbaum remarked, noting that the previous month the smallest number of murders were recorded for any single November in the last 10 years.

Historical Context and Government Strategy

Intense organized crime internal conflicts, alongside the government’s highly militarised operations to take on the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s murder rate rise sharply in recent times. The rate peaked at a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide figure more than 4x greater than the United States. However, homicides have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 the previous year. The President has attributed her national security strategy for an apparently sharper decline in homicides this year.

At a news briefing in August, the President stated: “There is a strategy, there is tracking of the strategy, and there is specific monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The strategy functions. And we have to keep working at it every day.”

The central components of the President's safety plan encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Advancing information gathering and investigation capabilities.
• Increased cooperation between government departments.

Analyst Caution and Statistical Limitations

But, security researchers warned that using murder numbers to draw a conclusion of improved security was flawed. This is particularly true in light of the uptick in other crimes such as forced disappearances.

“That would be positive news if this was a drop, but I think we must not just look at the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Well then, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican cartels. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

According to the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total declined by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the identical period the previous year. Yet, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in certain regions have surged by as much as 200%.

“Data on murders is no longer valid for gauging the context of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the ability or the inclination to accurately identify and categorize remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the ability to mask violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas added that using monthly averages of everyday homicides was similarly an issue because it could mask days when there were particularly high numbers of murders.

“Employing the daily average renders spikes of violent crime unseen,” he said.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

An area where the government can cite the success of its security strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Almost 40,000 suspects were apprehended between last October and this past November for high-impact offenses, per official figures. More than 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tons of narcotics confiscated.

“Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s highly in political terms profitable,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Frustration

However in spite of these actions, Mexico remains plagued by severe violence, with multiple states in the throes of cartel-related bloodshed. Last month there was a notable killing of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors killed in the past 12 months.

A short time after, thousands of protesters protested in Mexico City and across the nation to show their outrage at corruption and narco-violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a manner to build a story of safety. From a political standpoint it’s extremely potent, from a social perspective it’s very debatable,” Vargas remarked.