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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It frequently functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who engineered the biggest resurgence is handed the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or just the biggest shock.

Yet the current competition is distinctly different. The list of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division champions fading and recent also-rans ascending collectively. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this turbulent and entertaining season, he's facing multiple other exceptional coaches.

This is how the ideal ballot ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his rare talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open targets consistently. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to conjure magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, he would be the runaway favorite. But this is not a normal year!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff blend of youth and experience, he bet on newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason setback had the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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